Business
Why the needle comes in an increasingly larger haystack? Consider the following experiment a company X own by John release a new product/service to the public and since the product is organic-the expected success of the service turn out to be an unexpected shamble. t Well what went wrong? Well John contact a consultant and precisely a data analyst or you want a top-notch marketer to figure out the cause of your decadence a la French accent. Well he/she makes you an offer you cannot refuse and you end up hiring him. After 48 hours of intensive work,He comes out with final conclusion that 1-You did not have a large list to be able to capitalize on 2-Your sale copy wasn’t compelling and therefore not well crafted 3-your product/service is more a commodity as consequence not different from others outhere We tend to conflate the source of risk which by the way is very hard to compute and your exposure. Example: Key in point. Case of the last truck that pass on the bridge and the bridge collapses. Well our intuition is to blame the last vehicle on the bridge rather than the bridge itself. People focus on specific cause rather the structural problem that the business is facing- meaning the fragility and general structure of system Most entrepreneurs and some VC, are more likely to mistake the extremistan with the mediocristan than the other way around. Just like mistaken a bear for a stone and you end in the stomach of the bear. Random with the even marketers. The ultimate kern of my thought is indeed we see because things happen and things do not happen because we see.so the event cause the knowledge and not the knowledge cause the event. Here the three big take away from this blog. 1-Therefore, you cannot use any big data analytic company out there to predict socio economic event. Why? Well because the needle comes in an increasingly larger haystack. . Two practical examples: Remember the financial crash of 2008 what about the turkey story? Does that ring the bell 2-But you can use big data them to predict the extreme(s) which by the way are the most consequential. And or you can big data for targeted things. Second big Idea: Since we live in a fast pace world, hence prone to interdependence due to Internet and globalisation. As direct consequence we are more likely to make errors.By the ay . We have never been able to predict our own errors, and things will not change any time soon Intelligence is no more about noticing things that are relevant (detecting patterns) which obviously is relevant in a world that t is stable and that doesn’t change. Intelligence consist in ignoring things that are irrelevant (avoiding false patterns)