Episode 15: India-China Trade Relations

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Transforming India

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In the latest episode of the Transforming India podcast, co-hosts Arvind Panagariya and Pravin Krishna discuss China's growing hegemonic tendencies in the Indo-Pacific region and its implications for India-China trade relations. They note that recent developments in the South China Sea, East China Sea, Pacific and on the India-China border have created the need for India to distance itself from China in its trade relations. They then note that India has three possible options to reorient its trade away from China: raising tariffs against China only, raising tariffs against all partners on goods that come primarily from China, and engaging in Free Trade Agreements with other countries. The first two options aim to discourage imports from China directly whereas the third achieves the objective indirectly by encouraging imports from other countries at China's expense. They come out in favor of the third strategy, advocating for engaging in more trade agreements with large blocs such as the EU, UK and US. They also outline the dangers of returning to import substitution by raising tariffs unilaterally.