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In this episode, continue our discussion with ProgressNow Colorado’s executive director Ian Silverii. We discuss the most competitive State House districts in Colorado for the upcoming 2018 elections. Overview of Battleground State House Districts Following up on our discussion of the Colorado’s battleground Senate Districts podcast, we now take a look at the State House, where Democrats won back three seats that they lost in 2014 and now hold a 37-28 advantage. Republicans need to flip five seats, and so we narrow our discussion to five districts plus a bonus Pueblo County district. House District 3 – Dem Jeff Bridges, 52.5% in 2016 / Kagan 50.7% in 2014 This Arapahoe County district has long been elusive for Republicans. It is culturally and economically diverse, as it includes Cherry Hills Village and Greenwood Village to the east and Englewood and Sheridan to the west. Active registration shows a plurality of unaffiliated voters, 19,149, with 16,965 Democrats and 15,340 Republicans. In 2014, Republican Candice Benge came within 445 votes of defeating incumbent Daniel Kagan in what was a good year for Republicans. In 2016, shifts in turnout and President Trump’s unpopularity in the district led to a more comfortable 2,000 vote victory for Democrat Jeff Bridges, though Republican Katy Brown easily outperformed President Trump within the district. 2014 Results District 3 2016 Results District 3 House District 17 – Dem Tony Exum Sr., 49.4% in 2016 / Roupe, 47.3% in 2014 This El Paso County district seems to change hands every cycle. In 2014, Republican Kit Roupe won this district by 289 votes and then in 2016 Democrat incumbent Tony Exum won it back by 1,832 votes. This district traditionally has very low turnout in midterms. It includes central and southeast Colorado Springs and includes many members of the military. It is also the only majority-minority district in El Paso County, and is one of the smallest districts by registration with only 32,843 active voters. Registration by party is 12,813 unaffiliated voters, 10,608 Democrats and 8,576 Republicans. 2014 Results District 17 2016 Results State Representative - District 17 House District 30, Dem Dafna Michaelson Jenet, 54.1% in 2016, Windholz 50.2% in 2014 In 2016, Democrat Dafna Michaelson Jenet ousted incumbent Republican JoAnn Windholz by 2,500 votes. Registration in this district is 14,865 Democrat, 10,033 Republican and 15,198 unaffiliated. This is one of the three seats won by Republicans in 2014 that was lost in 2016, and so it probably will be viewed as a pick-up opportunity. Whether that is a realistic possibility will depend on just how much turnout reverts to typical midterm levels, as well as on the strength of the Republican candidate. 2014 Results District 30 2016 Results State Representative - District 30 House District 33, Dem Matt Gray, 52.1% in 2016, Primavera 50.1% in 2014 This seat is the best example of a pure toss-up, with voter registration at 18,645 Democrats, 16,394 Republicans and 23,167 unaffiliated voters. What is surprising about this district is incumbent Matt Gray’s win margin in 2016 only being 52.1%. We would have expected it to be higher, considering a favorable environment for Democrats and the fact that Trump was incredibly unpopular in this district (36% of the vote). If Republicans field a strong candidate, this district is in play, despite what will be an unusually favorable midterm environment for Democrats. 2014 Results District 33 2016 Results State Representative - District 33 House District 46, Dem Daneya Esgar, 52.2% in 2014, Unopposed in 2016 Interestingly, Republicans did not field a candidate in this race last year. Still, the fact that President Trump won the district could show that this is a surprising pick-up opportunity for Republicans. With Pueblo as a source of fascination of Colorado politicos after the 2016 election, expect at least some interest in contesting this southwest Pueblo district. Registration in HD 46 is heavily Democratic, with 22,097 registered Democrats compared to 13,384 Republicans and 15,521 unaffiliated voters. 2014 Results District 46 House District 59, Dem Barbara McLachlan, 50.7% in 2016, Rep. J. Paul Brown, 50.2% in 2014 In one of the more closely watched districts over the past two cycles, Rep. Barbara McLachlan narrowly edged out J. Paul Brown in 2016 after Brown’s even narrower victory in 2014. This district will certainly be one to watch next year. Active registration is at 18,993 unaffiliated voters, 18,843 Republicans and 16,943 Democrats. 2014 Results District 59 2016 Results