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In this episode, we discuss last week’s Democratic Debates. Who did well? Who has work to do? What are the tiers, and how many of these candidates could actually win the Democratic nomination? The Democratic Debates: Who “Won”? We’re starting to see some polling numbers that reflect what Democratic voters thought of the debates, and it seems clear that among the more top tier candidates, both Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris did well, while Joe Biden and Bernie Sanders failed to improve their numbers. If true, this certainly changes the dynamic of the race, with Biden and Sanders no longer a clear top two, resulting in a more wide open field. Still, before we get into the substance of the debates, let’s discuss just how wide open the field is. How many of these candidates could actually win the Democratic nomination? Ok, so if it’s clear that Warren and Harris did well, why do you think that is? What stood out about their performances? Who else caught your eye in these first debates? In the HuffPost/YouGov poll, Julian Castro, Cory Booker and Pete Buttigieg also did well. Did we see anything from either of those three that suggests an ability to make a leap as a more serious contender? FiveThirtyEight had an interesting breakdown of the debate in five charts. Is There Any Real Daylight Between The Candidates on Policy? Obviously, there were a ton of issues covered over the two nights…What stood out to you? Vox has a good breakdown from the left of who won/lost on policy. Most of the partisan Republicans watching will likely view the real winner of the debates as President Trump, arguing that the policy conversation was far to the left of the average American voter, and that Vice President Biden’s chances of securing the nomination took a hit after performance. Is there truth to that? How much did Vice President Biden really hurt his chances of winning the nomination? Did these debates change your perception of which candidates could defeat President Trump next November? What’s Next? The next debates, which will again feature two nights of ten candidates each, will take place in Detroit on July 30 and 31. For those debates, the qualification thresholds remain the same: Candidates must register at least 1% support in three DNC-approved polls or receive donations from 65,000 people including a minimum of 200 in at least 20 states. One candidate who did not qualify for the first round of debates has already qualified for the second round: Montana Governor Steve Bullock. However, because the DNC has capped the number of candidates on stage at 20, a series of tiebreakers will be used to determine who gets left off the stage. The bar to qualify gets significantly higher for the September debates, with at least 2% support needed in three DNC-approved polls, and 130,000 individual donors. That means that currently the only locks for the fall debates are Biden, Harris, Warren, Sanders, and Buttigieg, leaving candidates like Booker and O’Rourke on the bubble. Looking Ahead to the 2020 Calendar The Iowa Caucuses will take place on Monday, February 3rd, followed by the New Hampshire Primary on Tuesday the 11th. Harry Enten at CNN highlights the importance of Iowa and New Hampshire: No one has won a major party nomination since 1972 without coming in the top two in either Iowa or New Hampshire. And a strong showing in both states can turn a wide-open race into a blowout (see: John Kerry in 2004). The Nevada Caucuses take place on Saturday February 22nd, and the South Carolina Primary on Saturday the 29th. Super Tuesday, when Colorado will vote along with a significant portion of the country – including California and Texas – is Tuesday, March 3rd.