The air war against the Islamic State was critical to the territorial defeat of the group's territorial caliphate and a key enabler of American partner operation led ground combat. To discuss the air war, Aaron spoke this week with Stacie L. Pettyjohn, director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program of RAND Project AIR FORCE, and Becca Wasser, a fellow in the Defense Program at the Center for a New American Security, about their recent multi-authored book, The Role of U.S. Airpower in Defeating ISIS.

Middle East Brief

The Air War Against the Islamic State

Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin has launched a global posture review, shortly after taking office. To discuss the process and the likely implications for U.S. posture in the Central Command area of operation, Aaron speaks this week with Becca Wasser, a Fellow at the Center for New American Security's Defense Program and Co-Lead, The Gaming Lab.

The Middle East and America's Global Posture

Great power competition is likely to outlast the Trump presidency. To discuss the Biden Administration’s national security priorities and the role that special forces are likely to play, Aaron speaks with Tim Ball, a special forces officer and a fellow in FPRI’s National Security Program.

The Tip of the Spear: Special Operations Forces And Great Power Competition

The war in Nagorno-Karabakh is a human tragedy, but also provides observers the opportunity to monitor modern conflict and think closely about lessons for Western militaries. To discuss the on-going conflict and what it may mean for future combat, Aaron speaks this week with Michael Kofman, Director of the Russia Studies Program at the CNA, Jack Watling, Research Fellow for Land Warfare at the Royal United Services Institute, and Rob Lee, a PhD candidate at King's College, London.Related Reading:The Second Nagorno-Karabakh War, Two Weeks In - War on the Rocks https://bit.ly/31xD9CEThe Conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh Is Giving Us a Glimpse into the Future of War - RUSI https://bit.ly/35jJLFK

The Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: A Reflection on Modern Warfare

A few weeks ago, an AI algorithm beat a human pilot in a series of simulated dogfights, as part of the AlphaDogfight challenge to “demonstrate the feasibility of developing effective, intelligent autonomous agents capable of defeating adversary aircraft in a dogfight." The simulation touched off debate about the future of air combat. To discuss this, Aaron spoke this week with "Mule", an F-15E Weapons Systems Officer and Ryan "Stinger" Fishel, a F-15E pilot, about the simulation and the future of air combat. The views expressed are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the official policy or position of the U.S. Air Force, Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.

The Rise of the Machines: AI and the Future of Air Combat

Events in Syria have brought American and Russian militaries into close contact. In recent weeks, a video emerged showing Russian helicopters flying low over an American patrol, and it was later revealed that US soldiers were injured when a Russian vehicle rammed an American vehicle. To discuss ground deconfliction, Aaron spoke this week with Bob Hamilton, FPRI Black Sea Fellow and a Professor of Eurasian Studies at the Army War College.Stay tuned for the launch of FPRI’s upcoming book Russia’s War in Syria: Assessing Russian Military Capabilities and Lessons Learned on September 14th.

Ground Deconfliction with the Russians in Syria

Israel and the United Arab Emirates agreed to begin negotiations to normalize relations, so long as Prime Minister Netanyahu suspends his plans to annex the West Bank. The move was widely welcomed as beneficial for regional stability, but also raised questions about whether it was sustainable. To discuss the agreement, Aaron spoke with Dr. Joshua Krasna, a senior fellow at FPRI and a professor at NYU's Center for Global Affairs.

Israel and the United Arab Emirates: The Art of a Deal

What is the latest with Turkey's F-35? To get the latest, Aaron speaks this week with Valerie Insinna, Air Warfare Reporter at Defense News, about the latest with Turkey and the F-35.

The U.S. Air Force and Turkey's F-35

In this cross-over podcast with Arms Control Wonk, Aaron speaks with Fabian Hinz, a frequent guest on the podcast, about the recent explosions in Iran and what open source intelligence has revealed about the two incidents.https://www.armscontrolwonk.com/

Mysterious Explosions in Iran

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi has threatened to send armed forces across the border with Libya, following Turkey's successful ousting of Khalifa Haftar from territory his militia held in the western part of the country. The flashpoint is Sirte, where Turkish-backed forces are deployed and possibly preparing to assault, and which Sisi has pledged to defend. To discuss the Egyptian view of the conflict in Libya, Aaron speaks with Michael Hanna, a senior fellow at the Century Foundation in New York.

More Trouble in Libya: Egypt Raises the Stakes

The United States Treasury will soon announce the first round of sanctions associated with the Caesar Syria Civilian Protection Act, which is intended to punish the regime for its killing of civilians and aims to help broker dialogue to end the conflict. To discuss the sanctions, and whether they may do more harm than good, Aaron spoke with Basma Alloush, a policy and advocacy advisor at the Norweigan Refugee Council, and Alex Simon, the director of the Syria Program with Synaps. This podcast expands upon Basma and Alex's recent article on the same subject for War on the Rocks.Read the article here: https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/will-more-syria-sanctions-hurt-the-very-civilians-they-aim-to-protect/

The Caesar Civilian Protection Act: The Debate over Sanctioning Syria

In this week's episode, Aaron speaks with two of the three authors of The ISIS Reader: Milestone Texts of the Islamic State Movement, Haroro J. Ingram and Craig Whiteside. The discussion touched on the period after the killing of Zarqawi, but before the group's take over of Mosul. For interested listeners, Haroro and Craig spoke in more depth about other aspects of the book on the Modern War Institute Podcast and on FDD's Long War Journal Podcast.Modern War Institute Podcast : https://mwi.usma.edu/mwi-podcast-islamic-state-happened/FDD's Long War Journal Podcast: https://www.longwarjournal.org/archives/2020/05/generation-jihad-ep-8-the-islamic-states-foundational-texts.phpNote: The audio quality of parts of this episode was adversely affected by connectivity issues experienced during the recording session. We apologize for the inconvenience.

The Islamic State in Their Own Words

Lebanon finds itself in a financial crisis, brought about by years of economic mismanagement and political dysfunction. The economic fall-out from a relatively good response to the COVID-19 pandemic has accelerated these negative trends, raising questions about the trajectory and strength of on-going protests about social and economic inequality. To discuss the latest events in Lebanon, Aaron speaks this week with Joyce Karam, the Washington correspondent for the National.

A Financial Crisis in Lebanon

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Inna Rudolf, the author of "The Future of the Popular Mobilization Forces after the Assassination of Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis," the third chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Popular Mobilization Forces, the role of the now-deceased Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis within the organization, the Iranian influence over the PMF, and policy options to consider in the near future.*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.

Abu Mahdi Al-Muhandis: A Deep Dive with Inna Rudolf

This week, Aaron held a virtual discussion with Ben Robin-D'Cruz and Renad Mansour, the authors of "Making Sense of the Sadrists: Fragmentation and Unstable Politics," the first chapter for FPRI's forthcoming edited volume, Iraq in Transition: Competing Actors and Complicated Politics*. The conversation focused on the Sadrist movement, its place in Iraqi politics, how it balances relations with Iran and the United States, and where it may be headed in the near future. Read the full report here: shorturl.at/myzN7*The edited volume was made possible by a grant from GPD Charitable Trust.

The Sadrists: A Deep Dive with Ben and Renad

A bi-weekly round-up of policy relevant news about the Middle East, with a brief interview about why it matters for US foreign policy.

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Middle East Brief

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