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David Kilcullen is a soldier, strategist, diplomat, and author. He’s a scholar of guerrilla warfare, terrorism, urbanization, and the future of conflict. His newest book explores how the Western world's adversaries are adapting. This was a fascinating conversation covering topics like second-order effects, evolution and adaptation in competitive environments, and yield. We discuss world politics and the strategies and tactics of Russia, China, and North Korea. Links from the Show David’s talk at the Australian Centre for Society and Armed Conflict https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JDummafZbXs David’s talks at Google https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tVUI9U4WQ6E https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DoS9_Mr_K2E David on Hidden Forces (podcast) https://hiddenforces.io/podcasts/david-kilcullen-national-emergency/ David on the Federalist Radio Hour (podcast) https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/06/federalist-radio-hour-how-bad-actors-plague-the-international-stage-and-attack-the-west/ David on Departures with Robert Amsterdam (podcast) https://robertamsterdam.com/new-episode-of-departures-podcast-featuring-david-kilcullen/ Time Stamps 0:02:00 – Introduction 0:04:32 – Other talks by David you might enjoy (Google, Australian Centre for Society and Armed Conflict, Hidden Forces, The Federalist Radio Hour, and Departures with Robert Amsterdam) 0:07:35 – Nadia Schadlow & her book War and the Art of Governance (link above) 0:10:17 – Basis for the book’s name: CIA Director James Woolsey’s 1993 confirmation hearing testimony 0:14:16 – What exactly are “the dragons and the snakes?” 0:15:58 – The Gulf War: the blueprint for how not to fight the US 0:16:56 – Bookend #1: H.R. McMaster and the Battle of 73 Easting (precision, system-of-systems battlefield dominance) 0:19:12 – Second-order effects: the Gulf War forces an evolutionary response (Iran, China, and even US allies!) 0:22:13 – Bookend #2 “Dora Farms” (tactical excellence in the service of a blinkered strategy) 0:28:36 – Multi-disciplinary approach: using evolutionary biology as a basis for exploring strategy 0:32:10 – By becoming so dominant in 1991, we forced our adversaries to adapt or evolve 0:32:40 – Russia case study: Liminal Warfare & surfing the ambiguity threshold 0:40:55 – Adaptations to the modern media environment: impossible to keep things secret, but possible to sow confusion and exploit the intelligence OODA Loop 0:43:49 – Russian goal wasn’t to elect Trump but to create debate and disruption 0:48:15 – Russian strategy is like a Hollywood heist movie 0:49:50 – Connection to investing: super-high yield 0:51:44 – China case study: broadening the definition of war 1:07:17 – Reference Prisoners of Geography 1:08:32 – A huge theme in the book: the potential for misunderstanding 1:16:24 – North Korea case study 1:20:33 – Attempt to contain nuclear ambitions fall apart as we focus on Iraq and Afghanistan and in the aftermath of the “axis of evil” speech 1:34:50 – The three approaches the US can take going forward Strategy Chain Links Rate and review the podcast at https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/strategy-chain/id1492935567 Find Amazon affiliate links at http://strategychainpodcast.com/support Send me questions at http://strategychainpodcast.com/contact Sign up for the email list at http://strategychainpodcast.com/ Social Media @strategychain (Facebook, Twitter, Instagram, Medium)