Business
Well consider the following practical experiment you may have went through several times. For the last 5 years Donald who is an entrepreneur or an aspiring business owner/investor you name it, has being attending high promising business programs and mega summits worth at least 5000 dollars each. Now guess what? In practical terms his Business and life has not evolved for the better. Donald start to wonder what is wrong with himself? Be careful Donald is a practical person meaning a doer and make sure to follow the guidelines prescribed by the predictors. Well while surfing the net Donald accidentally discovers the blog of a website call optionalityprofits.com. Surprisingly he immerses himself in the in this blog and realize. The problem wasn’t him- but the way he framed his question. But before we that, let dig in these amazing eye-opener and profound findings: Indeed in 2005 Prf John Ioannidis one of the world renown professional researcher in statistics proved in front of ASA – that 80% of epidemiological studies made in computer fail to replicate in real life. By the way even in psychology only 39% replicate. Since then the FDA, the Food Drug of Administration in the USA has banned any research made on the computer. Second most of people, regardless of their skills and profession are victim of the confirmation bias (meaning taking seriously what you see and not taking seriously what you don’t see)- which by the is okay if you a world that is stable and that doesn’t change. But extremistan Third, again regardless of your profession. We fall victim of Law of small number. For make money three, four- five days in the row; you will feel a profitable person. Fourth We human are very good at narrating things back. Which give us the illusion of understanding the world. When in reality we are unable to prospectively predict. By the way “the mind cannot predict its own advance” to quote F A Hayek. So all what I am saying is that two things are going on here: Namely first and foremost the accuracy of models or programs that predict or foresee your ultimate damaging effect. Keep in mind you live long by not dying -Second the doubt of the accuracy of these models, because of lack of reliable evidence of harm to guarantee your action (wasting your hard-earning money, your time of practice) So where lies the problem of Donald? Well since we are not good at knowing, we are not good predicting, we are not good at planning. Most importantly these two alternatives are not fully comprehensive and profound. So we can sidestep the skepticism of those who question the existence Success programs by framing risk in the most straightforward possible terms. That is we should ask; “What the correct modus operandi, meaning method or technic be, if we have no reliable programs or models? “keep in the meantime that they are two types of risks involve here- namely the risk of losing your hard earning money and time and the risk of missing an opportunity. -Most pseudo don’t even know their error rate -Most consultants don’t know what they don’t know and as direct consequence they cannot harvest the unknown, the unpredictable, mistake,error,change.as jeff bezos put it “If someone tries to take all failure out of a process, innovation will cease..... Failure and invention are inseparable twins.” Since the world has become more and more complex, we in optionalityprofits are here to help you build………………………… To prove it remember what the Founder maverick of EBay Pierre omidyar well thoughtfully put it” Build a platform- prepare for the unexpected ….you will know that you are successful when the platform you have built serves you in unexpected way” paraphrase him. Guess what take google,facebook,Instagram,youtube- you name it.