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In this episode, we look at the 2018 U.S. Senate map and discuss current events as they relate to each state. We’ll focus on Steve Bannon’s efforts to recruit candidates to challenge Republican incumbents. 2018 U.S. Senate Map Today we are going to cover 19 states that have an election for the United States Senate. The 2018 elections for the United States Senate is heading up. Politico – Democrats see path to Senate majority in 2018 – where Senator Chris Murphy comments that: “The map feels a little different today than it did a few weeks ago. We might be playing a little more offense. At the same time, we don’t have a lot of bandwidth for offense given the defense we have to play.” At the same time, Senate Republicans are increasingly nervous, and are worried that if they fail to pass tax reform it would lead to further disgust among both donors and voters. Still, NRSC chair Cory Gardner notes that: “We run knowing the majority is on the line. There’s no doubt about it. But the fact is, they have 10 seats in Donald Trump states that we look very good in right now.” And it’s true, the map still heavily favors Republicans. For Democrats to actually take the majority, they would have to defend all 25 of their seats, plus win in Nevada, Arizona, and one of Alabama, Tennessee or Texas. That would be a tall order, but let’s take a look at what’s happening in each individual state to see how realistic their chances are… Alabama – While not technically a 2018 race, there will be a special election in Alabama on December 12, 2017, between Republican Roy Moore and Democrat Doug Jones. Public polling from JMC Analytics has shown Jones within single-digits. While strange things can happen in special elections, it is very difficult to imagine Doug Jones winning this race. President Trump carried the state by 28 points, and Senator Richard Shelby won by very similar margin last year. Robert Bentley also won by a very similar margin in the 2014 Governor’s race, and Mitt Romney won by 22 points in 2012. Democrats seem to think that Roy Moore is such a weak candidate that he opens up the door to a competitive race. As Tim Kaine notes in the Politico article linked above: “He [Jones] certainly has a dramatically better chance against Roy Moore than he would have had against Luther [Strange]”. Still, very, very much a longshot. Arizona – Arizona will be a high profile state next year, beginning in the Republican Primary. Jeff Flake ensured that with his very public criticism of President Trump, criticism which the President and former advisor Steve Bannon have certainly reacted to. The second major article that we’ll link to this week is from Bloomberg Politics over the weekend: Bannon Plans to Back Challengers to Most GOP Senators Running in 2018. Senator Flake is at or near the top of that list, and Bannon plans to back former state Senator Kelli Ward (who also ran against Senator McCain in 2016) in her primary challenge against him. What makes Arizona different from Alabama is that it could be very much in play in the general election. While President Trump won the state, he did not receive a majority of the vote. Senator McCain received just 54% of the vote last year, a figure very similar to Mitt Romney’s performance in 2012 and Governor Doug Ducey’s performance in 2014. The question is not whether Kelli Ward has a real chance to beat Senator Flake in a primary – JMC Analytics has her beating him by 26 points in an August Republican Primary automated survey – but whether she would lose the general election to Kyrsten Sinema, who Democrats view as a very strong candidate. Florida – Florida will be one of the toughest states for Democrats to defend next year. President Trump won with 49% of the vote last year, while Marco Rubio received 52% of the vote in his Senate Race. Governor Rick Scott won each of his gubernatorial bids in 2010 and 2014 by 48-49%, while Senator Ben Nelson received 55% of the vote in a great Democratic year in 2012 in which President Obama also carried the state with 50% of the vote. The big question in Florida is whether Governor Scott eventually enters the Senate race. A late summer poll showed him tied with Senator Nelson, and Scott’s entry into the race as a candidate who can largely self-fund would free up resources for the GOP to spend in other competitive states. Indiana – Indiana will be an even tougher defend for the Democrats than Florida, as President Trump carried the state by 57% last year and Mitt Romney won with 54% of the vote in 2012. It is widely believed that Senator Joe Donnelly benefited from running against Richard Mourdock in 2012. Mourdock defeated incumbent Senator Richard Lugar in the Republican Primary and drew criticism for comments about pregnancy and rape during the general election campaign. Republican congressmen Luke Messer and Todd Rokita are battling for the Republican nomination, and whether the winner is ultimately able to unseat Donnelly will likely depend on whether he can “nationalize” the race and paint Donnelly as just another vote for the national Democratic Party. Donnelly is about as well suited as a Democrat could be for this red state – he is pro-life, he supported the Keystone XL pipeline and he opposed President Obama’s executive action on immigration. Even given his strengths as a candidate, winning re-election will be a difficult task. Michigan – Another state won by President Trump where Democrats are on defense. However, this is a very different situation from Indiana. President Trump won by just under 11,000 votes, and while Rick Snyder has won the last two gubernatorial elections, there is little precedent for Michigan voters sending Republicans to the U.S. Senate. Since 1978, only Spencer Abraham has won election as a Senator, for one term from 1995 through 2001. Still, President Trump provided a theoretical roadmap for how a Republican can win in Michigan, and over the summer there was some buzz over the potential of Kid Rock challenging Senator Debbie Stabenow. It’s best to take a wait-and-see approach before deciding how realistic Republicans’ chances are here. Mississippi – Mississippi is worth mentioning briefly only because State Senator Chris McDaniel is being encouraged by Steve Bannon to challenge incumbent Senator Roger Wicker. McDaniel challenged incumbent Republican Senator Thad Cochran in 2014. In that Republican primary McDaniel won the primary and then lost in a very close runoff election to Cochran 51% to 49%. A win for McDaniel in the primary would give Bannon and Trump administration another ally in Washington. Missouri – Missouri will be a very difficult state for Democrats to defend. President Trump won with 57% of the vote, and even a rising-star Democratic candidate like Jason Kander came up short last year. And while Senator Claire McCaskill and former Governor Jay Nixon each won easily with 55% of the vote in 2012, McCaskill’s victory may be another instance of good fortune in facing a weaker Republican candidate (the now infamous Todd Akin). In that respect she is similar to Senator Donnelly in Indiana. Senator McCaskill very consciously portrays herself as a moderate Democrat, and she will need to continue to distance herself from the national Democratic party to have a chance at holding her seat. It’s also very much worth mentioning that Republicans now have a candidate, state Attorney General Josh Hawley, who is a serious challenger who may actually be able to straddle the divide between establishment Republicans and the anti-establishment forces led by Bannon. Montana – President Trump received 56% of the vote in Montana, marking this seat as another potentially difficult defend for Democratic Senator Jon Tester. Still, the state does have a history of electing moderate democrats like Governor Steve Bullock and Senator Tester with narrow margins. And Republicans are having some difficulty fielding a top-tier candidate to run against Tester. This is a state where it’s probably best to take a wait-and-see approach to handicapping the race. Nebraska – Worth briefly mentioning because, again, Senator Deb Fischer could draw a primary challenge, and if she were defeated Bannon/Trump would gain an ally in Washington. Nevada – Similar to the situation in Arizona, Senator Dean Heller has sought to distance himself from President Trump, and has therefore drawn criticism from Bannon and from the White House. Public polling in this race is all over the map, but suffice to say that Danny Tarkanian is a serious challenger in the Republican primary. Unlike Arizona, Hillary Clinton won Nevada last year, making Heller the only GOP Senator to face re-election in a state won by Hillary Clinton. His defeating Tarkanian in the primary may be Republicans’ only shot at holding this seat. North Dakota – Similar to Senator Tester in Montana, Senator Heidi Heitkamp represents a state where President Trump won easily last year (63%). That alone makes Senator Heitkamp one of the more vulnerable Democrats in the Senate, and her strategy of working with President Trump is probably a smart one. State Senator Tom Campbell is the only declared Republican candidate, and his ability to self-fund means this will likely be a very expensive campaign by North Dakota standards. Ohio – Ohio is another quintessential battleground where Democrats are on defense. President Trump won with 52% of the vote, President Obama won with 51% of the vote in 2012, and each party holds a Senate seat. Senator Sherrod Brown is up for reelection after a narrow victory (51%) in 2012. The 2018 race will likely be a rematch, with state treasurer Josh Mandel again taking on Brown. Mandel currently has a substantial lead in Republican Primary polling. Senator Brown is gearing up for what should be a very competitive race. Pennsylvania – Senator Bob Casey has taken somewhat of a leading role among Senate Democrats in criticizing President Trump, which is interesting given the president’s narrow victory in Pennsylvania last year. Combine that with the fact that the highest-profile Republican to announce so far is early Trump-supporter Congressman Lou Barletta, and this race could certainly be seen as a referendum on the President in a state that was important to his 2016 victory.    Tennessee – Senator Bob Corker has been very much in the news lately for a public spat with President Trump, and he has announced that he will not run for re-election. Congresswoman Marsha Blackburn is widely seen as the frontrunner, and as an unabashed supporter of President Trump she likely will remain the frontrunner. This race now has a similar dynamic to Alabama, with Democrats beginning to entertain the idea of competing for this seat. Still, Democrats have not held either a Senate seat of the Governor’s office in Tennessee since former Governor Phil Bredesen won in 2006 and was term-limited in 2010. It’s a stretch to think Democrats could compete here. Texas – Worth mentioning just because Senator Cruz is the one senator who Bannon has said is exempt from his insurgent campaign to challenge incumbents next year. National Democrats generally love challenger Beto O’Rourke, but while Hillary Clinton lost Texas by the smallest margin of any Democratic nominee since 1996, there’s nothing here to suggest Cruz is vulnerable in November. Utah – Senator Orrin Hatch will draw a primary challenge if he decides to run for reelection. Boyd Matheson, a former chief of state to Senator Mike Lee and the current president of the Sutherland Institute think tank, met with Bannon last week to discuss a run. If Hatch does retire, establishment figures in the state would likely field a different candidate, potentially Mitt Romney. West Virginia – It’s no secret that West Virginia is dramatically trending Republican. Perhaps more than any other senator, Joe Manchin will need to run a campaign independent of the national Democratic Party. As the linked piece from Politico points out, Manchin’s most immediate headache comes from the left: Progressives — including many who repeatedly point to Bernie Sanders’ victory in the Democratic primary there last year — regularly accuse Manchin of being an anti-environment, pro-gun fake Democrat despite his new leadership role in the Senate caucus and his gun control legislation. So long as Manchin is still drawing that kind of criticism from progressives, he may hang on for reelection. Wisconsin – Another state where President Trump won a very, very narrow victory. Senator Tammy Baldwin will face one of several well-funded Republicans vying for the nomination, and again this race will serve as a referendum on Trump’s support in a state that was crucial to his win last year. Wyoming – We’ve saved perhaps the most interesting state for last. In Wyoming, Bannon is encouraging Erik Prince, the founder of the security contractor Blackwater, to run in the primary against Senator John Barrasso. What’s most interesting is that Prince doesn’t currently live in Wyoming, and so if he is ultimately successful at unseating Senator Barrasso it would speak volumes about the power of the anti-incumbent wave in Republican politics.