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Smarter Politics is officially back for Season 2! In this episode, we discuss the extraordinary 2018 election in Colorado, and what it means moving forward to 2019 and 2020. We are glad you are back with us! Re-Introduction What have we been doing? Where has Magellan been? Why was the 2018 General Election Extraordinary? It was extraordinary because never has one political party, been so overwhelmingly rejected at every level of government by the voting electorate. Both Democratic and unaffiliated voters, participated at a level that has never happened before. For the first time ever in a Colorado mid-term election, unaffiliated voter turnout (918,091) and Democratic voter turnout (847,338) was higher than Republican turnout (810,143), and by a significant margin. By percentage of total vote, unaffiliated made up 35%, Democrats made up 33% and Republicans made up 32% of the total vote. As a comparison, in the 2014 mid-term election, Republican voter turnout was 774,923, Democratic voter turnout was 664,532 and unaffiliated voter turnout was 634,296. Comparing the 2018 midterm election to the 2014 midterm election, 502,209 more votes were cast in 2018 verses 2014. Of those 502,209 votes, 57% were registered as unaffiliated, 36% were Democratic and ONLY 7% were Republican. 2018 Voter Turnout Observations Republicans DID turn out to vote with a 3% increase from 2014. 2014=68% 2018=71% Voter enthusiasm was overwhelming among Democratic and unaffiliated voters. Among registered Democratic voters in 2018, 71% turned out to vote compared to just 59% in 2014, a 12-point increase. Unaffiliated voters increased their percentage of voter turnout by 14-points, from 46% in 2014 to 60% in 2018. From January 1 of 2018 to Election Day, 206,289 voters registered in Colorado. Of those that registered, 53% registered as unaffiliated, 27% registered as Democrat and 18% registered as Republican. A net gain of 18,474 Democratic voters to Republican voters. Of the 206,289 voters that registered 60% were 18-34 years old. Post-Election Survey of Unaffiliated Voters The Democrat Party has a net positive image rating among unaffiliated voters. 45% Favorable, 31% Unfavorable The Republican Party has a net negative image rating. 25% Favorable, 53% Unfavorable Donald Trump had a negative impact on all Republican candidates in Colorado, with 34% of unaffiliated voters saying they were less likely to vote for a Republican candidate because of his influence. President Trump’s job approval among unaffiliated voters was/is toxic. 31% Approve, 62% Disapprove (48% Strongly Disapprove) 2018 Governor Race Governor Polis – 53% (1,348,888) vs. Walker Stapleton - 43% (1,080,801) What happened? Why did Colorado Lose the State Senate? District 16 – Senator Neville (Tammy Story) Story - 56%, Neville - 41%, Gilman - 3% (Difference 12,249 votes) State Senate District 16 went from a R+5 district in the 2014 midterm to a D+2 district in 2018. However, unaffiliated turnout increased by 5% going from 33% in 2014 to 38% in 2018. 2014= Dem 31%, Rep 36%, Unaf 33% 2018= Dem 32%, Rep 30%, Unaf 38% (D+1, R-6, U+5) District 20 – Christine Jensen/Jessie Danielson Danielson - 54%, Jensen - 42%, Messick - 4% (Difference 10,872 votes) State Senate District 20 went from a R+4 district in the 2014 midterm to a D+3 district in 2018. Unaffiliated turnout increased by 7% going from 32% in 2014 to 39% in 2018. Those 7 points came directly from Republicans, with Republicans decreasing by 7%. 2014= Dem 32%, Rep 36%, Unaf 32% 2018= Dem 32%, Rep 29%, Unaf 39% (D0, R-7, U+7) District 22 – Tony Sanchez/Brittany Pettersen Pettersen - 58%, Sanchez - 42% (Difference 11,993 votes) State Senate District 22 went from a R+2 district in the 2014 midterm to a D+5 district in 2018. Just like in SD16, unaffiliated turnout increased by 5% going from 32% in 2014 to 37% in 2018. 2014= Dem 33%, Rep 35%, Unaf 32% 2018= Dem 34%, Rep 29%, Unaf 37% (D+1, R-6, U+5) District 24 – Senator Beth Martinez Humenik/Faith Winter Winter - 52%, Martinez Humenik - 40%, Matkowsky - 5%, Osborn – 3% (Difference 8,510 votes) State Senate District 24 went from being an even district in the 2014 midterm to a D+6 district in 2018. Unaffiliated turnout increased by 4% going from 34% in 2014 to 38% in 2018. 2014= Dem 33%, Rep 33%, Unaf 34% 2018= Dem 34%, Rep 28%, Unaf 38% (D+1, R-5, U+4) Looking Ahead to the 2019 General Election and Beyond Will turnout in an odd-year election have an increase in Democratic and unaffiliated voters? There will most likely be something on the ballot that intends to weaken TABOR in 2019, knowing the turnout demographics and the results of 2018, what do you think will happen with TABOR? Leading into next week, with the democrats having full control, was there an overreach in legislation from the state legislature this year?